Goals

The primary goal of the school is to train astronomers to the use of modern statistical techniques, specifically parameter estimation and model selection. The INTENSIVE course is characterized by extended laboratory sessions (i.e. individual work at the computer), taking about two third of the school attendance. Attendance to the course has pre-requirements specified HERE.

Program

1) Probability axioms. Computation of the posterior: analytical vs numerical sampling. Upper limits. Initial discussion on the role of the prior. Importance of checking numerical convergence. A glimpse on sensitivity analysis.
2) Single parameters models. Combining information coming from multiple data. The prior (and the Malmquist-like effect). Prior sensitivity. Two-parameters models. Joint probability contours. Comparison of the performances of state-of-the-art methods to measure a dispersion.
3) Introduction to regression. Comparison of regression fitters. Regressions (of increasing difficulty): non-linear regression with non-gaussian errors of different sizes (but no error on predictor and no intrinsic scatter). Allowing systematics (intrinsic scatter). Allowing errors on x. Regressions with two (or more) predictors. A glimpse on other important issues such as mixture of regressions, non-random data collection, model checking.
4) Introduction to Bayesian model comparison. Automatic implementation of Occam's razor. The three three levels of inference. The Bayesian evidence: Meaning and interpretation. Dependency on the choice of prior.
5) Computation of the evidence: are physical constants variable?

Instructor

Stefano Andreon
The lecturer in the last few years have taught at over 15 advanced courses and postgraduate schools in 7 countries on topics of Bayesian inference. He is respected authors of textbooks on the school subject, Astrostatistics: Bayesian Methods in Cosmology Astrostatistical Challenges for the New Astronomy. Bayesian methods for the physical sciences. Learning from examples in astronomy and physics.

The capacity is limited to 25 participants (first come first served basis). The school is open to PhD students in fisics, astrophysics and astronomy (they should register by May 15th). Participants to the school are requested to install a few softwares packages and to write some reading/plotting routines as detailed HERE prior to the beginning of the school. Failing to do so will significantly impair the learning outcomes.

PAYMENT DETAILS

The registration fee is 30 EUR and for that you will also receive an 85 EUR statistical book. To secure a place, partecipants are required to pay the registration fee by bank transfer using the coordinates below. Recipient name: Istituto Nazionale di Astrofisica, Recipient bank: BNL Banca Nazionale del Lavoro, IBAN: IT69S0100503309000000218500, Reason for payment: INAF-OABrera Second Astrostatistics School. Please send to Roberto.Moncalvi@inaf.it a copy of the receipt of the bank transfer to allow us track the payment and this form duly filled.

The fee will be refunded to you should the limit of 25 entrants be already achieved by the time you register.

The school will be held in seminar room in Sala Strumenti of the INAF-Brera Observatory, located in via Brera, 28 in the center of Milano. It will start on monday 24 June 2017 at 14:00 and ends on friday 28 June at 12:00. See how to reach us.

The school is organized by S. Andreon (INAF-OA Brera) and Massimo Caccia (Uni-Insubria, Doctoral school in Physics and Astrophysics). LOC: S. Andreon, M. Carpino, C. Casellato, F. Castagna, A. Mandrino, R. Moncalvi, and G. Trinchieri.